Payments Trendwatching: A Methodology for Uncovering What’s Next

In payments, staying ahead means identifying the trends that truly matter, those shaping decisions, and driving growth.

Last week, we explored how focusing on the right problems can lead to solutions that resonate with decision-makers.

This week, let’s go a step further.

Let’s talk about How to uncover the trends behind those problems.

Through my 21 years in this industry, I’ve learned that staying relevant isn’t about chasing buzzwords. It’s about understanding the forces shaping the landscape and using them to build something meaningful.

In this newsletter, I’ll share my methodology for staying ahead in a world of constant change.

Let me explain…

1. Start with the Big Picture: Macro Analysis

Trends don’t emerge in isolation; they’re born from the broader forces shaping the world, economic shifts, consumer behavior, and regulation.

To uncover them, you first need to step back and ask, “What’s driving change here?”

The economy is the obvious starting point. Inflation, interest rates, and trade dynamics directly influence how money moves.

For example, rising interest rates can change how businesses prioritize cash flow, while global trade disruptions drive demand for faster and more resilient cross-border payments.

Understanding these forces gives you context for where demand is heading.

Then there’s consumer behavior.

Payment preferences are shifting. Digital wallets have gone from novelty to necessity because they align with the way people live, digitally, instantly, and globally.

Similarly, Buy Now, Pay Later didn’t just emerge because it’s trendy; it solves a real need for flexible spending. However, the deeper story is how expectations around transparency and personalization are evolving alongside these trends.

Regulation is the third piece.

Changes like PSD3 or open banking aren’t just compliance exercises, they’re opportunities to innovate. They force the industry to evolve its infrastructure, unlocking potential for new products. The key isn’t just knowing the rules but anticipating how they’ll ripple through the ecosystem.

When you connect these dots, you’re no longer just observing the industry, you’re positioning yourself to influence it.

2. Dive Into Sub-Markets: Follow the Growth

Once you have the big picture, zoom in on the sub-markets where demand and complexity intersect. This is where innovation thrives.

Look for momentum.

In regions like Latin America, real-time payments are booming as financial inclusion expands. Cross-border payments are another example: globalization is amplifying demand for faster, cheaper, and more transparent solutions.

These aren’t static opportunities, they’re growing in relevance as complexity increases.

Pay attention to the conversations around you. Decision-makers often share recurring pain points that signal where growth is happening.

For example, as embedded finance gains traction, businesses are struggling to integrate it seamlessly into their systems. These challenges highlight where needs remain unmet.

It’s not just about size. Growth alone doesn’t guarantee opportunity. Focus on markets where complexity and demand are rising together, these are the areas where merchants are willing to invest, knowing the stakes are high.

By aligning with these opportunities, you’re not just solving today’s problems, you’re staying ahead of tomorrow’s needs.

3. Lean on Data and Decision-Maker Insights

Trends become clearer when you combine data with direct insights from the people facing these challenges.

Talk to the right decision-makers.

Whether it’s a head of product or a CFO, these are the people closest to the pain points that matter. They can tell you what’s keeping them up at night, whether it’s reconciliation inefficiencies, fraud, or rising transaction costs.

But it’s not enough to gather complaints; you need to spot patterns. If multiple leaders mention the same issue, it’s likely systemic. Pair these qualitative insights with data, quantify the cost of those chargebacks or the impact of those inefficiencies. The combination makes the problem undeniable and worth solving.

Most importantly, focus on the people who have the authority to act. In payments, the end-user isn’t always the decision-maker. By understanding who controls the budget, you can position your solution where it matters most.

4. Distill the Trends: Tools for Clarity

Insights are valuable only if they lead to action. That’s where structured frameworks like a Problem Definition Document (PDD) come in. Think of it as a tool to prioritize what matters.

Start by categorizing trends into short-term and long-term opportunities.

Short-term trends, like a surge in real-time payments adoption, might demand immediate attention, while long-term trends, like the rise of embedded finance, shape the industry over years.

Next, assess their impact.

Is the trend transformative, disruptive, or simply sustaining?

Not all trends are equal, and understanding their potential helps you focus your energy on the ones that truly matter.

Finally, visualize your findings.

A simple dashboard highlighting high-impact trends can guide your strategy more effectively than a lengthy report.

Clarity keeps your team aligned and your focus sharp.

5. Stay Ahead: Iterate and Adapt

Trends evolve, and your understanding of them needs to evolve, too. Staying ahead means constantly refining your approach.

Start by building a habit of continuous monitoring. Check industry reports, revisit your data, and stay connected with peers. Trends don’t stay static, and neither should your strategy.

Engage actively with the ecosystem. Join panels, attend events, and discuss challenges with clients. These conversations give you early access to insights and help you spot shifts before they become obvious.

Above all, stay curious.

What worked last year won’t necessarily work tomorrow. Keep asking questions, testing assumptions, and adapting your solutions.

By iterating on your understanding, you ensure you’re not just keeping up, you’re leading the way.

Final Thoughts

Identifying trends isn’t about chasing buzzwords, it’s about uncovering the forces that reshape payments and finding ways to act on them. By combining a big-picture perspective with focused research and actionable insights, you position yourself to stay relevant in a fast-changing industry.

Whether you’re a founder, a leader in a growing organization, or driving innovation in an enterprise, this methodology equips you to see what’s next and turn it into an advantage.

Thank You for Reading. Feel free to Like, Comment, Share, or Post on Your Socials. I appreciate all the feedback I can get.

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P.S. If you want to work with me in a larger capacity, either speaking, advisory, or consulting, feel free to email or DM me.