Payments 4.0 Summer School: The Syllabus
Why Most Payments Professionals Will Be Obsolete by 2026 (And How to Avoid That Fate)
The last six months have been a wake-up call for payments leadership.
Worldline's stock crashed 60% as investors lost confidence in their ability to compete with more agile rivals. Meanwhile, Visa launched Intelligent Commerce with AI agents that can execute payments autonomously, while Mastercard unveiled Agent Pay for machine-to-machine transactions.
Apple was forced to eliminate its 30% "tax" on in-app purchases after a federal judge ruled against their anti-steering practices. PayPal introduced PYUSD stablecoin settlements, and Stripe's acquisition of Bridge signaled that blockchain rails are moving from experiment to infrastructure.
The European Central Bank fined multiple payment companies for regulatory compliance failures, while the UK's new reimbursement rules for authorized push payment fraud are forcing banks to completely rethink their risk models.
The pattern is clear: companies that built their strategies around 2020's playbook are getting disrupted by those designing for 2030's reality.
Across the payments industry, I'm seeing a dangerous pattern: companies that dominated the last decade are struggling to adapt to the next one. The shifts happening right now aren't incremental improvements; they're fundamental changes in how money moves, how decisions get made, and who controls the value chain.
The question isn't whether this transformation will happen. It's whether you'll lead it or get left behind.
The Great Unbundling Is Here
Having spent the last six months analyzing every major trend reshaping payments, I've identified four seismic shifts that will determine which companies thrive in the next decade:
Infrastructure is becoming intelligence. The old model of "dumb pipes" processing transactions is dead. Winners are building AI-native platforms that learn, optimize, and adapt in real-time.
Merchants are climbing the value ladder. The smartest companies are graduating from simple payment acceptance to full-stack financial platforms, capturing more value at every step.
Legacy giants are struggling to dance. Scale used to be an advantage. Now it's often a liability. Companies that can't move at startup speed are watching nimble competitors steal market share.
Security is the new competitive battleground. With fraud losses approaching $400 billion, the companies that master AI-driven defense will own the future.
Each of these shifts demands a different playbook. Most payments professionals are still using strategies designed for the last decade, not the next one.
Introducing Payments 4.0 Summer School
Over the next six weeks, I'm going to break down everything you need to know about this transformation.
This isn't just another newsletter series.
My mission is to give you the strategic frameworks, decision tools, and competitive intelligence you need, to navigate the biggest shift in payments since the internet.
Here's what we'll cover:
Week 1: The Great Infrastructure Shift
From Monoliths to Modular
Why your payments stack will be obsolete by 2026, and how the smartest companies are already rebuilding for the API-first future.
Key Questions:
Is your architecture flexible enough for real-time stablecoins?
Can your stack handle AI-driven routing decisions?
Are you building on rails that will exist in five years?
Featured Analysis: The embedded finance revolution, modular payments architecture, and why stablecoins are becoming the new settlement layer.
Week 2: The Merchant Evolution Journey
From Simple to Sophisticated
How companies graduate from basic payment acceptance to full control over their financial destiny.
Key Questions:
What stage are you serving on the composable payments maturity curve?
When does it make sense for merchants to move from MoR to orchestration and beyond?
How do you monetize payments without becoming a bank?
Featured Analysis: The four-stage merchant evolution, from Merchant-of-Record to Direct-to-Scheme processing, and why the optimal model depends on your merchant’s growth stage.
Week 3: The AI Arms Race
Build, Buy, or Partner?
Why Visa paid billions for AI while others debate it, and the three strategic paths every payments company must choose between.
Key Questions:
Should you build AI capabilities or acquire them?
How do you compete with AI-native startups?
What happens when payments become autonomous?
Featured Analysis: The M&A strategies of payment giants, the rise of AI Agent Pay, and why programmable finance is the next platform shift.
Week 4: The Security Reckoning
The $400 Billion Problem
How Adyen, M&S, and Square all got caught unprepared, and why traditional security approaches are failing against modern threats.
Key Questions:
Is your fraud detection keeping up with AI-powered attacks?
How do you balance security with conversion rates?
What's the true cost of a payments outage?
Featured Analysis: The anatomy of modern payment attacks, why AI is becoming the only viable defense, and how security is evolving from cost center to revenue driver.
Week 5: Giants Under Pressure
Scale vs. Agility
The $3 trillion question: Can legacy payment giants adapt fast enough, or will they be disrupted by more agile competitors?
Key Questions:
When does scale become a liability?
How do you innovate while managing legacy systems?
What can giants learn from startup playbooks?
Featured Analysis: The adaptation strategies of Fiserv, Global Payments, and Nexi, and why some giants thrive while others struggle.
Week 6: The Payments 4.0 Playbook
Your Next Move
The companies that will own payments in 2030 are making these moves right now. Here's your strategic roadmap for the next decade.
Key Questions:
What's your competitive positioning for Payments 4.0?
How do you prioritize investments across multiple disruptions?
What should you be building, buying, or partnering for?
Featured Analysis: The strategic frameworks that separate winners from losers, the 90-day transformation roadmap, and the patterns shared by companies succeeding in the transition.
Why This Matters Now
The payments industry is at an inflection point.
Companies that understand these shifts and act on them will capture disproportionate value. Those who wait will spend the next decade playing catch-up with competitors who moved first.
The difference between leaders and laggards isn't intelligence or resources, it's the willingness to adapt their strategy to match the new reality.
Over the next six weeks, you'll get the insights, frameworks, and strategic intelligence you need to not just survive this transformation, but lead it.
What You'll Gain
Each week, I'll provide strategic frameworks, decision tools, and competitive intelligence that you can immediately apply to your business context.
This isn't theoretical analysis, it's actionable insight from people who have been in the boardroom conversations where these strategic decisions get made. The kind of strategic thinking that influences M&A decisions, shapes technology roadmaps, and determines competitive positioning.
By the end of August, you'll have a comprehensive understanding of the forces reshaping payments and the strategic options available to navigate them. More importantly, you'll be equipped to lead these conversations in your organization and make informed bets on the future.
Ready to Begin?
The transformation is happening whether you're prepared or not.
The question is: Will you be leading the change or scrambling to catch up?
Next week, we start with the foundation: why your payments infrastructure will determine your competitive position for the next decade.
So no matter if you are still in the office, lying on a beach, or working from home, mark your calendars. Clear your schedules. And get ready to completely rethink how you approach payments strategy.
Class begins next Friday.
Thank You for Reading. Please like, Comment, Share, or Post on Your Social media. I appreciate all the feedback I can get.
P.S. If you want to work with me in a larger capacity, either speaking, advisory, or consulting, feel free to email or DM me.
Obsolete by 2026? Better check this out!
Thank you Dwayne for stepping in to lead this timely conversation. Fast forward past the mapped 6 weeks, it would be interesting to explore the new heights of how customer experience would be exponentially enhanced. Excited! Looking forward to joining the conversation!